Virtual University of Pakistan

CS620 : Modelling and Simulation

Course Overview

Course Synopsis

This course covers the advance topics of modeling and simulation such as Developing Models, Executing Simulations, Analyzing Results, Calibrating Models, Verification & Validation of Models

Course Learning Outcomes

At the end of this course students will have better understandings of followings:

• Basics of Simulation
• Statistical Models
• Formal Models
• Agent-Based Model

Course Calendar

 1 Introduction
 2 When simulation is the appropriate tool
 3 When it is not
 6 Areas of application
 7 Military applications
 8 System and Environment
 9 System Concepts
 10 Components of a system
 11 Discrete and Continuous
 12 Model of a system
 13 Types of Models
 14 Discrete Event Simulation
 15 Steps in a sim. Study: Planning
 16 Steps in a sim. Study: Conceptualization

 17 Steps in a sim. Study: Data Collection and Model Translation
 18 Steps in a sim. Study:Verification and Validation
 19 Steps in a sim. Study:Experimental Design
 20 Steps in a sim. Documentation
 21 Steps in a sim. Study: Logs & Reports
 22 Steps in a sim. Study: Phases Overview
 23 Simulation Case Studies Basic steps
 24 Basics of a Spreadsheet Simulation: Simulating Randomness
 25 Simulating a Coin Toss
 26 Simulating a Random Service Time
 27 Simulating a Random Arrival Time
 29 Framework Simulation Table Design
 30 Framework using Discrete event simulation: General Idea
 31 Framework using Discrete event simulation - I
 32 Framework using Discrete event simulation - II

 33 Framework using Discrete event simulation - III
 34 Framework using Discrete event simulation - IV
 35 Event Scheduling Time advance algo
 36 Event Scheduling Time advance algo-II
 37 Event Scheduling Time advance algo-III
 38 Event Scheduling Time advance algo-IV
 39 World views - I
 40 World views - II
 41 Manual Simulation
 42 Manual Simulation-II
 43 Manual Simulation-III
 44 Statistical Models in Sim
 45 Review of Terms-I
 46 Review of Terms-II
 47 Review of Terms-III
 48 Review of Terms- IV

 49 Useful models - I
 50 Useful models - II
 51 Why Agent-Based Modeling?
 52 A Thought Experiment
 53 Complex Systems and Emergence
 54 Understanding Complex Systems and Emergence
 55 Example 1: Integrative Understanding
 56 Example 2: Differential Understanding
 57 Agent-Based Modeling as Representational Infrastructure for Restructurations
 58 Example: Predator-Prey Interactions
 59 Example: Forest Fires
 60 What Is Agent-Based Modeling?
 61 Ants
 62 Creating the Ant Foraging Model
 63 Expressional ProteomicsResults and Observations from the Ant Model
 64 What Good Is an Ant Model?

 65 What Is Agent Based Modeling?
 66 Agent-Based Models vs. Other Modeling Forms
 67 Randomness vs. Determinism
 68 When Is ABM Most Beneficial?
 70 What Is Needed to Understand ABM?
 71 Explorations
 72 Beginner NetLogo Explorations
 73 Ants and Other Model Explorations
 74 Concept Explorations
 75 NetLogo Explorations
 77 Creating Simple Agent-Based Models: Life-I
 78 Life-II
 79 Life-III
 80 Simple Economy-I

 81 Simple Economy-II
 82 Simple Economy-III
 83 Simple Economy-IV
 84 Econophysics
 85 NetLogo: Agentsets and Lists
 86 Exploring and Extending Agent-Based Models
 87 Characteristic Features of ABM
 88 Fire Model
 89 Fire Model: Basic Model
 90 First Extension: Probabilistic Transitions
 92 Third Extension: Allow Long-Distance Transmission
 93 The Diffusion-Limited Aggregation (DLA) Model
 94 First Extension: Probabilistic Sticking
 95 Second Extension: Neighbor Influence
 96 Third Extension: Different Aggregates

 97 Segregation Model
 98 Description of the Segregation Model-I
 99 Description of the Segregation Model-II
 100 Simulation of the Segregation Model
 101 First Extension: Adding Multiple Ethnicities
 102 Second Extension: Allowing Diverse Thresholds
 103 Third Extension: Adding Diversity-Seeking Individuals
 104 CITIES Project
 105 EI Farol Bar
 106 First Extension: Color Agents that are more successful predictors
 107 Second Extension: Average, Min and Max Rewards
 108 Third Extension: Histogram reward vales
 110 Creating Agent-based Model

 113 A Concrete Example
 115 Choosing Agent Properties
 116 Choosing Agent Behavior Choosing Parameters of the Model
 117 Choosing Parameters of Model
 118 Summary of the Wolf Sheep Simple Model Design
 119 Examining a Model
 120 Multiple runs
 123 The Components of Agent-Based Modeling
 124 Agents
 125 Properties & Behaviors
 126 Collections of Agents
 127 The Granularity of an Agent
 128 Agent Cognition

 129 Other Kinds of Agents
 130 Environments
 131 Spatial Environments
 132 Network-Based Environments
 133 Special Environments
 134 interactions
 135 Observer/User Interface
 136 Schedule
 137 Analyzing Agent-Based Models
 138 Types of Measurements
 139 Modeling the Spread of Disease
 140 Statistical Analysis of ABM: Moving beyond Raw Data
 141 The Necessity of Multiple Runs within ABM
 142 Using Graphs to Examine Results in ABM
 143 Analyzing Networks within ABM
 144 Environmental Data and ABM

 145 Correctness of a Model
 146 Verification
 147 Communication
 148 Describing Conceptual Models
 149 Verification Testing
 150 Beyond Verification
 151 Sensitivity Analysis and Robustness
 152 Verification Benefits and Issues
 153 Validation
 154 Macrovalidation vs. Microvalidation
 155 Face Validation vs. Empirical Validation
 156 Validation Benefits and Questions
 157 Replication
 158 Replication of Computational Models: Dimensions and Standards
 159 Benefits of replication
 160 Recommendations For Model Replicators

 161 Recommendations for Model Authors
 163 History
 164 Complexity
 166 Systems Approach
 167 Modeling of CAS
 168 Agent-based Approach
 169 Complex Network-based Modeling
 170 Cognitive Agent-based Computing Framework
 171 Useful Statistical Models
 172 Bernoulli Distribution
 173 Binomial Distribution
 174 Poisson Distribution
 175 Uniform Distribution
 176 Exponential Distribution

 177 Triangular Distribution
 178 CHARACTERISTICS OF QUEUEING SYSTEMS
 179 The Calling Population
 180 System Capacity
 181 The Arrival Process
 182 QUEUE BEHAVIOR AND QUEUE DISCIPLINE
 183 Service Times and the Service Mechanism
 184 Queueing Notation
 185 Long-run Measures Of Performance Of Queueing Systems
 186 Properties Of Random Numbers
 187 Linear Congruential Method
 188 Generation Of Pseudo-random Numbers
 189 Tests for Random numbers
 190 Random Variate Generation
 191 Inverse Transform Technique
 192 Acceptance Rejection Technique

 193 Other topics in Randomness
 194 Data Collection
 195 Identifying the Distribution with Data
 196 Histograms
 197 Selecting the Family of Distributions
 198 Quantile-Quantile Plot
 199 Parameter Estimation
 200 Preliminary Statistics: Sample Mean and Sample Variance
 201 Evolution of Computer Systems Architectures
 202 Evolution of Database Systems
 203 Evolution of Operating Systems
 204 Evolution of Computer Networks
 205 Need for Performance Evaluation
 206 Role of Performance Evaluation in Computer Engineering
 207 Overview of Performance Evaluation Methods
 208 Performance Metrics and Evaluation Criteria

 209 Comparison of Two System Designs
 210 Independent Sampling with Equal Variances
 211 Independent Sampling with Unequal Variances
 212 Common Random Numbers
 213 Confidence Intervals with Specified Precision
 214 Comparison of Several System Designs
 215 Bonferroni Approach to Multiple Comparisons
 216 Bonferroni Approach to Selecting the Best
 217 Bonferroni Approach to Screening
 218 Metamodeling
 219 Simple Linear Regression
 220 Testing for Significance of Regression
 221 What Does 'Optimization via Simulation' Mean?
 222 Difficulties in Optimization via Simulation
 223 Using Robust Heuristics
 224 Random Search: An Illustration
 225 Introduction to performance evaluation
 226 Events

 227 Measurements (sampling)
 228 Intervals
 229 Response
 230 Independence
 231 Randomness
 233 Problems encountered in model development and use
 234 A Case Study
 235 Introduction to Software Reliability
 236 Definitions and Software Reliability Model
 237 Software Reliability Growth Modeling
 238 Imperfect Debugging Modeling
 239 Imperfect Debugging Model with Perfect Correction Rate
 240 Imperfect Debugging with Introduced Faults
 241 Software Availability Modeling
 242 Model Description

 243 Software Availability Measures
 244 Application of Software Reliability Assessment
 245 Optimal Software Release Problem
 246 Statistical Software Testing-Progress Control
 247 Optimal Testing-Effort Allocation
 248 Introduction to formal modeling
 249 Basic notation-??
 250 Basic notation-II
 251 Classical Petri Nets-I
 252 Classical Petri Nets-????
 253 Timed Petri nets I
 254 Timed Petri nets II
 255 Priority-based Petri nets
 256 Colored Petri nets
 257 Generalized Petri nets
 258 Formal Spec. Using Z